Nursing & Healthcare News
RN Workforce Forecast
New nurses are filling the shortage, but more support is needed
The BRN recently released an updated California nursing workforce forecast, which projects that the state’s current RN shortage could be closed within the next four years!
Pandemic Aftermath
The COVID pandemic accelerated the “Silver Wave” of older RNs retiring, and it led some younger nurses to leave the profession, but it also brought a big influx of new nursing students and new graduate RNs.
Now, the million-dollar question is whether these effects will balance out, or whether California will be left with a long-term nursing shortage. The latest nursing workforce forecast study from the Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies at UCSF examines these trends in detail.
A Shortage Today, But Maybe Not Tomorrow
California currently has an estimated nursing shortage of 25,168 full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs. (Since most nurses work less than 40 hours a week, the number of additional nurses needed to fill this shortage is actually greater than this figure.)
However, thanks to robust nursing program enrollments, the state should have enough new grads to fill this shortfall by 2028, accounting for population growth and normal RN “outflows” like retirement and relocation.
Retention is Key
That’s good news, but the study also offers some caveats. First, while it’s encouraging that California is adding enough new nurses to fill the gap in the foreseeable future, it won’t happen overnight. In the meantime, healthcare organizations still “need to rapidly develop and implement strategies to mitigate the potential harm caused by the current shortage.”
Second, for the growth of California’s nursing workforce to close the projected, it will be important for healthcare organizations to support current nurses, including recent grads, so that they’ll stick around for the long haul.
The authors warn that the most recent BRN Survey of California Registered Nurses shows high levels of self-reported burnout among younger nurses. Changing that will be a vital step in ending the state’s nursing shortage.
“Employers need to redouble their efforts to retain experienced RNs and develop career paths for newly graduated RNs to ensure their successful transition into the workforce,” the authors advise.
In this Article: BRN, Nursing Workforce
